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“Snowball” LIVE – good or bad idea? Plungeinto Soccer betting

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Hey,

So I’ve thought about doing this before. I don’t know if it already has been done. The “snowball” idea is to start 10 euros and keep going all-in with the money that we win until we reach a certain number. So for example:

We bet 10 on a team > win 16
bet 16 > win 28
bet 28 > win 56
etcetc…

It would all be live and in the span of a short time(1-3 hours) depending on the supply.

What do you guys think about this?

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5 Comments

  1. BloodOfTenChiefs

    September 23, 2017 at 1:50 am

    Bad Idea in many ways.

    * Assuming that you somehow have a positive expected value for every bet. As you play many games there is a **very high variance**. (This of course is bad, as you have to do this a lot of times to earn money)

    * This is **basically playing accas**. You only get the money if you win all games. So you can easy calculate the propability by imagining the urn model with 3 balls and putting them back in, without noting the sequence. ~~If N=3 (3 outcomes) and n=5 (you pick 5 games for example) then you compute it with the binmonal coefficient of (N+n-1) and (n). You will see this comes out very low.~~ (Edit: Of course you have to divide this through the propability of finding the “win” ball times N. Thanks to /u/TheWizardOfOdds for pointing that out) The propabilities to the power of the number of games is actually way easier!

    * Biggest problem is, that even though you have a high variance you have **no edge multiplication** so this is basically even worse than accas

    * and last but not least it is never good to distribute the risk unevenly between multiple bets that have the same expected value

    Edit: This is the type of bet, where chance of ruin is immensly high, on the other hand you can win a lot of money.

    Reply

  2. circlingldn

    September 23, 2017 at 1:50 am

    otherwise known as a rolling accumulator

    Reply

  3. ContrarianAnalyst

    September 23, 2017 at 1:50 am

    I can guarantee that the reverse of this bankroll management approach tends to lead to epic losses, so there’s certainly some probability this will produce a big profit if you have the nerve to keep going long enough, although if you don’t have value no betting system will generate long term profit.

    Reply

  4. Sir_luw

    September 23, 2017 at 1:50 am

    we all think it’s great until we lose it all then start again the next day…good luck

    Reply

  5. johnnyc91

    September 23, 2017 at 1:50 am

    I’ve seen it done but divide the total by the odds of the next bet before you bet on it. This gives less risk.

    For example £10 @ 1.6 returns £16. Next bet also 1.6 so bet £10 and store £6. Returns £16 + spare £6 = £22 altogether.

    Reply

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