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Do you have an edge? Plungeinto Soccer betting

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Edge. The basic tenet of gambling. The reason the casinos and bookmakers will always make money and why 95%+ of customers will be lifetime losers.

If you have an advantage over whoever is laying the bet, you are in a good position. If you take up a position without an edge and you will undoubtedly lose, whether it be short term or long term, it doesn’t matter. Make a negative EV move and you lose money. Make several and you lose money even faster.

People seem to think that edge relies on knowing a sport. “Yeah mate watch the footy down the pub every Saturday for the last 30 years I know my footy”. We all know that guy. I’ve come across tonnes from working in pubs, working in bookies to just being around. They’re all the same. In poker they’re known as fish. Most punters are fish of some sort.

Our buddy is a raging alcoholic, supports one of the big clubs, sinking as many pints as games he watches. Think he knows the sports he watches and inevitably puts down bets in the bookies conveniently located next door. He says he does it for “interest” but a few hours later he’ll claim he’s an expert bettor if he wins or he’ll claim he’s just stone cold unlucky if he loses and he’ll get it the next time. Quite clearly he’ll always be in the red until he quits and/or goes broke.

The fact is, knowing a sport can be of benefit, but it’s possible to make money and not have the slightest clue about the sport.

Casinos edge is well known. Even the mug punter knows that games like blackjack have a house edge that over time means they’ll make staggering profits. You still play though because it’s fun. Perfectly entitled to do so, casinos are great places if you can handle your emotions and ignore the sad degenerates nearby. Likewise it’s perfectly normal to want to bet on something, but if you consider yourself a serious bettor, as yourself the question…**Do I have an edge?**

People want to think edge concerns getting lucky. Luck or variance affects winnings and losses for sure, but over a long time variance even everything out. It’s why winning systems push through even if they’re losing right now.

Also pretty common is knowing the bookmakers have an edge, although many never have the slightest clue of what that edge is. “Let’s beat the bookies boys” you’ll hear the Ladbible merchants say. “Great day for the bookies” as the odds on favourite loses. “Shocking day for bookies” as the favourite wins. It’s never a bad day for the bookies in reality, but that’s a completely different story for a different time.

The main proportion of the bookmakers edge comes down to the overround, or the “juice” that is worked into their market. This is the guaranteed profit they take on the market. From the getgo they already are beating you. And most people don’t even realise it. To win you have to find value in the odds given and then some before you even become profitable. There are Better explanations of overround out there, a simple google will suffice, but just by me telling you that it exists, it’ll automatically increase your edge. I’m sure

A fair bet will have odds or probabilities totalling 100%. Pretty self explanatory right? The bookies make their money by ensuring the odds + their slice of juice totals over 100%, anything over it automatically money into their pocket.

**A random example: bet365 offering prices for Man United vs Burnley at the weekend.**

**Burnley @7.0
Draw @3.8
Man United @1.5**

**There are free overround calculators online, but eventually you’ll start learning the implied probabilities of odds.**

**Total percentage rounds up to about 107%. As you see that’s no longer “fair”. And that’s how bookies make their money. They make unfair bets and the mug punters lap it up without knowing any different. 7% is actually pretty mild overround too.**

They also have machines that accurately predict the odds, they have traders who hedge up their book by dumping liability elsewhere etc etc. You shouldn’t try to detest the bookie, you should learn from what they do. It’s a serious business. Learn about money management, hedging, statistical analysis etc.

Just like casinos ban card counters and people beating the games, bookmakers ban and limit those with clever systems and what not. You don’t even have to be that good to get limited. I was limited after a week of being on Stan James, making only a few hundred profit. Anything that dwindles their edge, they’ll try their best to rectify it. It’s why [Denise Coates and her kind are taking in record sums each year](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/12/bet365-chief-denise-coates-paid-217m-last-year). I’m currently on my third account with 365, and I haven’t even made that much profit lifetime on their site.

So back to edge. Many see it as some secret thing…but on the basic level it’s your advantage over the market. That could be with inside info, it could be spotting an incorrect odd on offer – a mistake by the bookies. It could be a system you have in place that the bookies are not aware of. It could be a mathematical model that predicts true odds better than the bookies put up. It can be correct money management which means long term you have a chance of success. It’s knowing when to bet and when not to bet. It’s knowing when to withdraw your winnings or know when to close down the account. Always think, edge.

The point is, edge isn’t one solitary thing. It’s pieces of little things that should constantly grow and constantly build up to what you use to bet in the market. Don’t get depressed thinking “I’ll never build a machine learning model like xyz”. Start where you are, keep learning, keep refining your thoughts and systems and be happy that you’re at least giving yourself a much greater chance of winning than our alcoholic friend in the pub, or over a vast majority of punters for that matter.

It makes no difference to me if you bet foolishly, good for you if you get a kick out of it. However there has been an influx of goofy posts and suggestions on here lately, more than normal and it’s sad that people are setting fire to their money without even fighting for it, they don’t even realise it. If I see another 0-1000 post with odds of 1.12 again I think I’ll scream.

**I apologise for rambling, but for a TL:DR – Edge, ask yourself what is yours? Do you have an edge?** **If not, why do you continue to set fire to your money if you care about it. Sports betting is supposed to be fun. Researching, crunching numbers, staking correctly, finding the best odds, finding mistakes in a bookies system.** **It’s a puzzle, and without the pieces you will never even have a chance of winning.** **It doesn’t even take a lot to significantly boost your potential.**

**The internet is a great place, a quick google on the topics and you’ll be led down a journey of knowledge.**

Hope someone got some use of this, if not it always helps to revisit your own thoughts every now and again, so I’m glad I typed this out.

Kbye xox

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  1. cemocan70

    January 18, 2018 at 1:59 pm

    304 draws landed out of 937 games with average odds 3.39 that provide me %9.98 edge this season, I guess i have an edge.


  2. Combosingelnation

    January 18, 2018 at 1:59 pm

    If we talk about a bettor who wants and probably will be successful, limited account(s) is never an apology to quit nowadays as there are every day more and more options where to play and even how to look like average Joe who likes beer more than winning a bet 🙂


  3. circlingldn

    January 18, 2018 at 1:59 pm

    A good tip….if you have a stanjames account….feel free to arb them….as the ceo of unibet says they are closing doen and customers will be moved to unibet


  4. danzds

    January 18, 2018 at 1:59 pm

    Good read , i liked this.


  5. bananarepubliccat

    January 18, 2018 at 1:59 pm

    “The main proportion of the bookmakers edge comes down to the overround, or the “juice” that is worked into their market. This is the guaranteed profit they take on the market.”

    I don’t think this is totally right. In the UK (and in Europe, I think too), bookies are taking bets mainly on match odds. Due to the way people bet, this often results in an unbalanced book and exposure to outcomes. If the book was balanced then juice=profit…but it usually isn’t. This is why UK bookies (i.e. Stan James) are particularly aggressive about banning people and why you hear about results being good or bad for bookies in the UK (if you don’t believe me, most of the UK bookies are publicly listed, they regularly talk about certain events being good or bad…they do lose money on events too). Elsewhere as in Asia/US, this doesn’t make sense because bookies mainly take action on spreads ending up with a balanced book and a somewhat fixed profit (and an ecosystem that is more favourable to pros, so why syndicates that are based in UK only bet in Asia). If we are talking about edge, understanding liquidity is a big part of it (from the little I know, a big reason the syndicates do well is their access to liquidity).


  6. elliotreid13

    January 18, 2018 at 1:59 pm

    Asking someone if he has an edge is like asking if he has a big penis: even if they don’t, the answer is always yes.


  7. AmIOCDyet

    January 18, 2018 at 1:59 pm

    Always nice to see informative posts. Thanks for the write-up OP


  8. DeekAbuko

    January 18, 2018 at 1:59 pm

    Here is what I think your edge is over the sportsbook.

    1. They have to sell every game, you do not have to buy into every game. be selective and have commitment. bet only on games where your confidence level is higher than high , and that level better be tangible.
    2. They can be a valuable source of information for you , you are to them …. not really .. unless you are placing zillion dollar bets, By learning about how odds are set and how they change you can get indications of games outcome/directions, respect the market, use it for your advantage and do not challenge the odds for fun; unless you are a zillionaire already …


  9. circlingldn

    January 18, 2018 at 1:59 pm

    6 months in my local betfred, total bet £74,000, returns £89,000

    average bet size £100


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